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Recent turbulence in the financial market is a reminder that economic stability is heavily reliant on collective perceptions and ‘market confidence’. So it is with security, and nowhere is this more evident than in a so-called fragile state like the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is plummeting into a different kind of recession.

The seemingly endless crisis in North Kivu is making a rare foray into the international news agenda. (Recent reports from The New York Times and the BBC.) UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has warned that “the intensification and expansion of the conflict is creating a humanitarian crisis of catastrophic dimensions and threatens dire consequences on a regional scale”.

It’s more complicated than this, but here’s some of the recent background:

Not so long ago, North Kivu was controlled by the Rwandan-backed RCD-Goma, a legacy of the 1998-2004 conflict which came to be known as ‘Africa’s First World War’ because so many people died and because so many neighbouring countries sent troops to fight and plunder as the alliance of convenience that had helped Laurent Kabila topple Mobutu in 1997 fell apart.

As part of the power-sharing agreement that ended the war (but certainly not insecurity in the east), the RCD was given nearly a fifth of the seats in the National Assembly, but it was deeply unpopular, representing Rwandan interests and dominance of the Tutsi minority. When the Congolese people finally had a chance to vote for their representatives in 2006, the RCD held onto only 15 seats out of 500.

President Joseph Kabila owed a large part of his success in those elections to his overwhelming support in the war-ravaged eastern provinces, where he took credit for the UN-managed, internationally-financed elections and convinced the population that he would bring peace and security by ending the plague of foreign armed groups and local militias.

Unfortunately, the latter task fell to cautious, over-stretched UN forces and a corrupt, inept national army that was composed of former warring factions. With the huge country split into myriad, inaccessible local enclaves, it was never going to be easy to resolve all the problems of corruption, mismanagement, inter-ethnic rivalries and power struggles. But the immediate post-election period offered a real window of opportunity for the new government to unite the country behind a clear vision and (with UN support) determined backing for the rule of law. They blew it.

Through costly trial and error in militia-infested Ituri (bordering Uganda), some evidence emerged that the formula of newly trained Congolese brigades backed by (Pakistani, South African, Guatemalan and at one stage European) peacekeepers ready and able to project and use force could produce results.

But the army was rotten, and those who called for senior officers (including untrained former militia leaders) to be vetted for war crimes and prevented from pocketing all the pay were repeatedly told that such niceties would have to wait until later. Ordinary soldiers were left to fend for themselves, in the fine tradition established by Mobutu in his decline, with predictable effects on their morale and reputation.

When the Congolese army was sent to oust Laurent Nkunda’s CNDP rebels from their strongholds in the hills of North Kivu late last year, they relied on overwhelming numbers, lots of new weapons, and dangerous alliances with local and foreign Hutu militia groups (I saw both in Masisi when researching for Human Rights Watch). UN support was limited to logistics and medical evacuations, partly for fear of becoming complicit in war crimes. As the CNDP ceded ground, the army bombarded empty hilltops and proclaimed great victories. In a dramatic turnaround, the army was routed as soon as the rebels counterattacked, abandoning their uniforms and looting as they fled.

Diplomats scrambled to salvage the situation. A ceasefire was agreed, followed by a dubious peace deal that contained the conflict while acknowledging and cementing the status quo. Clashes and human rights violations continued even as the deal was being negotiated, so the local population and civil society remained deeply skeptical of the intentions of the signatories.

Referring the Congolese army’s alliance with the FDLR (a Rwandan Hutu rebel group led by former genocidaires) and frequent ceasefire violations, the CNDP announced its withdrawal from the peace process. On 2 October, media-savvy Nkunda told the BBC he was ready to expand his operations to ‘liberate the people of the Congo’. That statement must have earned him a lot of people’s undivided attention.

Now the CNDP have once again humiliated the Congolese army by forcing them to flee strategic positions across North Kivu, tellingly beginning with the stretch of Virunga National Park which offers a supply line from Rwanda. (The CNDP certainly recruits from Congolese Tutsi refugees in Rwanda, and there are frequent allegations that they have covert support from the Rwandan army as well.)

UN troops tried to block the advance, stationing APCs to block the roads into Rutshuru, north of Goma. But the CNDP works in small, mobile groups, so they simply bypassed the barricades and overran the town, sabotaging the mobile phone network as they did so.

Large numbers have already fled Goma. Now the remaining population, including tens of thousands of displaced people who have nowhere left to go, is huddled and waiting to see what happens next. They are bitterly disappointed by their own government and have no faith left in the UN. The years of conflict have furnished them with numerous nasty memories from which to compose worst-case scenarios. They heard gunfire all night, but cannot tell who’s doing the shooting: rebels, soldiers on a looting spree, or just firing in the air?

International relief workers and UN staff are gathered in two fortified compounds in Goma, sleeping on the floor, eating rations and trying to keep up with the news to see if they will be evacuated.

Nkunda declared a ceasefire last night. Is his plan to leave the CNDP as de facto authority of a big chunk of fertile, mineral-rich North Kivu, or do his ambitions really extend even further? Aware of the regional implications, the UN Security Council is anxiously pondering its options, including the rapid deployment of a UN-mandated European force.

(Cross-posted at From the Frontline.)

Extra: Johann Hari quotes International Crisis Group’s Africa Director Francis Grignon: “Nkunda is being funded by Rwandan businessmen so they can retain control of the mines in North Kivu. This is the absolute core of the conflict. What we are seeing now is beneficiaries of the illegal war economy fighting to maintain their right to exploit“.

The inspiration for Oscar the Grouch?

Oscar Levant discusses a weekend in the country with Fred and Ginger

“Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate.”
The delightful Frank Luntz, in a memo to the US Republican Party, 2003

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”
4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

“Few PR offences have been so obvious, so successful and so despicable as the attack on the scientific certainty of climate change.”
Jim Hogg, PR professional, DeSmog blog, 2007

“We will delete comments which deny the absolutely overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change, just as we would delete comments which questioned the reality of the Holocaust or the equal mental capacities and worth of human beings of different ethnic groups. Such “debates” are merely the morally indefensible trying to cover itself in the cloth of intellectual tolerance.”
Alex Steffen, editor of WorldChanging.com, 2008

“You should be ashamed of yourself”, said a man on the train this morning, berating a fellow commuter who had just barged his way onto the train as the doors were closing. “You knocked that woman over. You even swore at her.”

The accused looked duly bashful. “I didn’t mean to” came his childish response, “and I wasn’t swearing at her, I was swearing at the other people”.

Last week, the UN accused the Congolese government of using excessive force in recent military-style police operations in Bas Congo. According to the UN, ‘at least 100’ people were killed, wounded captives were summarily executed, houses were looted and razed, and bodies were collected and disposed of.

The same thing happened last year. Excuse my lack of objectivity, but it’s disgusting, and the Congolese government should be ashamed of itself.

Instead, the ruling party faithful are lining up to dismiss the report. The government spokesman said it was “mendacious”, with “conclusions that could seriously undermine the credibility the DRC is painfully and very patiently trying to restore”. The Provincial Minister for Justice, Human Rights and Information (no less) went further: “it’s unfounded… quite simply a muddle of confabulations and monstrosities.”

If anything, the UN report, which is based on a painstaking investigation, is too cautious. There is no indication that a single shot was fired at police during their operation ‘to restore State authority’. Yet the evidence from mass graves, together with reports from credible medical and civil society sources, makes it hard to conclude that any fewer than 250 were shot dead by police. And almost as chilling as the massacre itself was the systematic cover-up, with bodies being collected, thrown into police pick-ups (under tarpaulins), and thrown into mass graves and rivers.

In March, a courageous opposition parliamentarian named Gilbert Kiakwama insisted on a debate about these events. Knowing that it would be futile to demand the Interior & Security Minister’s resignation, he asked him to do his job:

Since you have no intention of resigning, I have only one thing to say to you : Work. Do your duty, all your duty, nothing but your duty. Stop ducking the issues. …Give your troops non-lethal weapons, build them real prisons, stop the theft of their salaries and rations, punish corruption and abuse of power… or to the injury of the Kongo people you will have added insult.

Imagine our surprise on finding the austere Wellington Monument surrounded by this.

“Hulk. Smash! …Smash Hulk’s USP. What Hulk smash most? Hulk smash all hope of interesting time in cinema.”

Peter Bradshaw neatly sums up the desperation of the would-be film-goer as blockbuster season settles in for the summer.

Take your pick:

• The Incredible Hulk (see above)
• Iron Man, “a mixture of Robocop and Darth Vader… a franchise that is already beginning to rust”
• Indiana Jones “One tries hard not to be distracted from any available pleasure by the plot—thickly woven gibberish”
• Sex & The City “There are four of them—banded together, like hormonal hobbits, and all obsessed with a ring“, or
• The Happening “Basically an awful clunker of whose essential clunkerishness you become aware slowly but inexorably, like a hypnosis subject coming round from a trance. You begin to notice the abysmal acting, terrible direction, muddled script - an undead trio shuffling worryingly towards you.”

It’s as if the National Theatre was suddenly doing Lloyd Webber musicals. This wouldn’t be so bad if we could count on some sunshine, at least. Time to order another series of The Wire.

(My apologies to readers in Kinshasa, for obvious reasons.)

Has it really been a month?

I designed some t-shirts, and you can have one too. Worldwide exclusive, etc, etc.

Click on the picture for more info. More designs coming soon, including, by popular demand, one for Mundeles.